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Kristianstad W vs Växjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Växjö W
Växjö W
R. Siemsen 50', 48'
C. Wickenheiser 38'
D. Dupuy 87'
L. Russell 82'
S. Redenstrand 73'
10/12/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 23Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Kristianstad W59%
×Draw21%
Växjö W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristianstad W
2.08
Växjö W
1.11

Kristianstad W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kristianstad W
2.01
Växjö W
1.08

allows per match

Kristianstad W
1.14
Växjö W
2.15

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.00on par
Växjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Växjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw
80%
Kristianstad W or Växjö W
79%
Draw or Växjö W
41%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+
36%
Växjö W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals
87%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
61%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
34%
Växjö W 1+ goals
67%
Växjö W 2+ goals
30%
Växjö W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
75%
Växjö W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 80 matches

Växjö W away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.01 + Växjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Växjö W attack 1.08 + Kristianstad W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kristianstad W scores more
59%
level
21%
Växjö W scores more
20%

Kristianstad W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. SiemsenKristianstad WKristianstad W · F
8.7

Match Events

38'
C. Wickenheiser
46'
D. Dupuy← V. Giannaka
46'
E. Nilsson← V. Svanström
48'
R. Siemsen
50'
R. Siemsen
54'
Heidi Ellingsen
70'
Moa Olsson
72'
B. Maron← K. Tryggvadóttir
73'
S. Redenstrand
74'
E. Hammarbäck← B. Níelsdóttir
82'
L. Russell
85'
Brett Maron
87'
T. Sandén← R. Siemsen
87'
D. Dupuy

Possession

58%Kristianstad

Shots

18Kristianstad

Pass accuracy

52%Kristianstad

Statistics

KristianstadVäxjö
Overview
58%Possession42%
18Total Shots12
2.70Expected Goals (xG)2.07
3Corners4
5Fouls5
Shots
18Total Shots12
8On Target6
3Off Target4
6Blocked0
12Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
557Total Passes402
457Accurate Passes301
82%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
5Fouls5
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Kristianstad W vs Växjö W

Kristianstad W and Växjö W drew 3-3 in Damallsvenskan on October 12, 2024.

Goals: C. Wickenheiser (38'), R. Siemsen (48', 50'), S. Redenstrand (73'), L. Russell (82'), D. Dupuy (87').

Kristianstad W controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kristianstads Fotbollsarena in Kristianstad.