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Växjö W vs Hammarby W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Växjö W
Växjö W
Preview
14:00
Hammarby W
Hammarby W
9/13/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 18Visma Arena
Big match
62%
Hammarby W
model favours
19%19%62%

Hammarby W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Växjö W19%
×Draw19%
Hammarby W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Växjö W
1.29
Hammarby W
2.42

Hammarby W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Växjö W
1.54
Hammarby W
3.06

allows per match

Växjö W
1.77
Hammarby W
1.03

finishing

Växjö W-0.21scores less
Hammarby W-0.39scores less

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Hammarby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw
38%
Växjö W or Hammarby W
81%
Draw or Hammarby W
81%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+
8%
Hammarby W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals
72%
Växjö W 2+ goals
37%
Växjö W 3+ goals
14%
Hammarby W 1+ goals
91%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
69%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)
24%
Hammarby W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 6 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 1.54 + Hammarby W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hammarby W attack 3.06 + Växjö W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Växjö W scores more
19%
level
19%
Hammarby W scores more
62%

Hammarby W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hammarby W have won 7 of the last 8 meetings
  • 67% of Hammarby W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Hammarby W’s matches
  • Växjö W win just 14% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 4.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Växjö W
Balanced
Hammarby W
Possession-dominant
51%Possession60%
78%Pass accuracy82%
13.7Shots16.1
1.72xGBiggest gap2.58
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Växjö WHammarby W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Växjö W
0
Draws
7
Hammarby W
Avg goals: 4.4BTTS: 63%
0–71–41–42–10–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDWLL
W
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Växjö W vs Hammarby W — Match Preview

Växjö W face Hammarby W on September 13, 2026 in this Damallsvenskan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Växjö W host Hammarby W at Visma Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.