Hammarby W 4–1 Växjö W: Result & Stats

Hammarby W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Växjö W

E. Wangerheim 53', 29'

S. Holmberg 44', 32'

M. Bodin 48'

3/23/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 1Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hammarby W51%

×Draw22%

Växjö W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby WExpected goals in this matchVäxjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.44

Hammarby W

2.02

Växjö W

1.44

Hammarby W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.14

creates per match

1.91

0.98

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Hammarby W

2.14

Växjö W

1.91

allows per match

Hammarby W

0.98

Växjö W

1.91

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Hammarby W+0.16scores more

Växjö W-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby W ↓

Växjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Hammarby W or draw

72%

Hammarby W or Växjö W

78%

Draw or Växjö W

49%

Winning margin

Hammarby W wins by 2+

29%

Växjö W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hammarby W 1+ goals

87%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

60%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

33%

Växjö W 1+ goals

76%

Växjö W 2+ goals

42%

Växjö W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

65%

Växjö W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

Växjö W away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.91 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby W attack 2.14 + Växjö W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.02

Växjö W attack 1.91 + Hammarby W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hammarby W scores more

51%

level

22%

Växjö W scores more

28%

Hammarby W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

S. Holmberg

Hammarby W · D

9.7

Match Events

11'

Julie Blakstad

29'

E. Wangerheim↳ V. Hasund

32'

S. Holmberg↳ S. Lennartsson

44'

S. Holmberg↳ V. Hasund

48'

M. Bodin↳ M. Kamogawa

53'

E. Wangerheim↳ A. Josendal

59'

E. Joramo← S. Vallotto

59'

C. Tandberg← A. Josendal

61'

H. Raijas← T. Johansson

61'

D. Dupuy← S. Amano

69'

E. Bragstad← B. Andersson

69'

L. Okvist← S. Lennartsson

74'

Maja Bodin

77'

M. Nurmela← M. Bodin

77'

B. Nielsdottir← C. Minas

78'

E. Wieder← M. Kamogawa

85'

A. Lundgren← A. Carlsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HammarbyVäxjö

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots3

2.54Expected Goals (xG)0.58

10Corners4

10Fouls4

Shots

12Total Shots3

8On Target2

2Off Target1

1Blocked0

9Inside Box2

3Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

642Total Passes354

551Accurate Passes259

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Hammarby W vs Växjö W

Hammarby W beat Växjö W 4-1 in Damallsvenskan on March 23, 2025.

Goals: E. Wangerheim (29', 53'), S. Holmberg (32', 44'), M. Bodin (48').

Hammarby W controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 3.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.

Hammarby W vs Växjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hammarby W vs Växjö W