Växjö W 1–4 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

Växjö W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Hammarby W

L. Russell 44'

J. Blakstad 63'

A. Miyagawa 55'

E. Wangerheim 42', 17'

11/2/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 25Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Växjö W21%

×Draw20%

Hammarby W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Växjö WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.26

Växjö W

1.27

Hammarby W

2.26

Hammarby W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.54

creates per match

2.76

1.77

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Växjö W

1.54

Hammarby W

2.76

allows per match

Växjö W

1.77

Hammarby W

1.01

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.90scores less than expected

finishing

Växjö W-0.21scores less

Hammarby W-0.90scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw

41%

Växjö W or Hammarby W

80%

Draw or Hammarby W

79%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+

8%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals

72%

Växjö W 2+ goals

36%

Växjö W 3+ goals

14%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

89%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

66%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)

26%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 6 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 1.54 + Hammarby W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hammarby W attack 2.76 + Växjö W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Växjö W scores more

21%

level

20%

Hammarby W scores more

59%

Hammarby W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

42'

44'

55'

61'

S. Vallotto← C. Tandberg

61'

S. Holmberg← S. Lennartsson

63'

Þ. Ágústsdóttir← S. Redenstrand

63'

T. Johansson← B. Níelsdóttir

63'

J. Blakstad

72'

E. Gibson← A. Miyagawa

72'

E. Westin← V. Hasund

79'

A. Jøsendal← J. Andersson

86'

E. Hammarbäck← D. Dupuy

86'

V. Svanström← Þ. Ágústsdóttir

Växjö3-4-1-2

Hammarby4-5-1

20

▼

Hasund

17

▼

Lennartss

11

⚽2

Wangerhei

41

⚽

Blakstad

19

▼

7

2

18

25

▼

Andersson

6

⚽

▼

1

1

6

5

3

11

▼

Redenstra

8

Akgün

7

Ellingsen

9

▼

Níelsdótt

21

▼

Dupuy

33

Nilsson

19

⚽

Russell

Manager: O. Unogård

63'▲Þ. Ágústsdóttir←▼S. Redenstrand

63'▲T. Johansson←▼B. Níelsdóttir

86'▲E. Hammarbäck←▼D. Dupuy

86'▲V. Svanström←▼Þ. Ágústsdóttir

Växjö W substitutes

16Ágústsdóttir17Johansson2Hammarbäck10Svanström4Nurmela12Torstensson14Giannaka

Manager: M. Sjögren

61'▲S. Vallotto←▼C. Tandberg

61'▲S. Holmberg←▼S. Lennartsson

72'▲E. Gibson←▼A. Miyagawa

72'▲E. Westin←▼V. Hasund

79'▲A. Jøsendal←▼J. Andersson

Hammarby W substitutes

10Vallotto31Holmberg8Gibson23Westin9Jøsendal14Andersson29Edrud

Damallsvenskan: Växjö W 1–4 Hammarby W

Hammarby W beat Växjö W 4-1 in Damallsvenskan on November 2, 2024.

Goals: E. Wangerheim (17', 42'), L. Russell (44'), A. Miyagawa (55'), J. Blakstad (63').

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.

Växjö W vs Hammarby W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: Växjö W 1–4 Hammarby W