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Växjö W vs Hammarby W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Växjö W
Växjö W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hammarby W
Hammarby W
11/6/2021DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 22Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Växjö W19%
×Draw19%
Hammarby W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Växjö W
1.29
Hammarby W
2.42

Hammarby W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Växjö W
1.54
Hammarby W
3.06

allows per match

Växjö W
1.77
Hammarby W
1.03

finishing

Växjö W-0.21scores less
Hammarby W-0.39scores less

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Hammarby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw
38%
Växjö W or Hammarby W
81%
Draw or Hammarby W
81%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+
8%
Hammarby W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals
72%
Växjö W 2+ goals
37%
Växjö W 3+ goals
14%
Hammarby W 1+ goals
91%
Hammarby W 2+ goals
69%
Hammarby W 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)
24%
Hammarby W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 6 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 1.54 + Hammarby W defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hammarby W attack 3.06 + Växjö W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Växjö W scores more
19%
level
19%
Hammarby W scores more
62%

Hammarby W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Växjö W 0–2 Hammarby W

Hammarby W beat Växjö W 2-0 in Damallsvenskan on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.