Vauxhall Motors 0–0 Atherton Collieries

Vauxhall Motors

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atherton Collieries

4/4/2025

League #54 · Northern West - 38The vanEupen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vauxhall Motors37%

×Draw24%

Atherton Collieries39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vauxhall MotorsExpected goals in this matchAtherton Collieries

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.54

Vauxhall Motors

1.48

Atherton Collieries

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.71

creates per match

1.50

1.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vauxhall Motors

1.71

Atherton Collieries

1.50

allows per match

Vauxhall Motors

1.57

Atherton Collieries

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vauxhall Motors+0.00on par

Atherton Collieries+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vauxhall Motors ↓

Atherton Collieries →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vauxhall Motors or draw

61%

Vauxhall Motors or Atherton Collieries

76%

Draw or Atherton Collieries

63%

Winning margin

Vauxhall Motors wins by 2+

17%

Atherton Collieries wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vauxhall Motors 1+ goals

77%

Vauxhall Motors 2+ goals

43%

Vauxhall Motors 3+ goals

19%

Atherton Collieries 1+ goals

79%

Atherton Collieries 2+ goals

45%

Atherton Collieries 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vauxhall Motors (draw refunded)

48%

Atherton Collieries (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vauxhall Motors at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Atherton Collieries away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vauxhall Motors attack 1.71 + Atherton Collieries defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atherton Collieries attack 1.50 + Vauxhall Motors defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vauxhall Motors scores more

37%

level

24%

Atherton Collieries scores more

39%

Atherton Collieries at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atherton Collieries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff