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Atherton Collieries vs Vauxhall Motors — League #54 2026

Atherton Collieries
Atherton Collieries
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vauxhall Motors
Vauxhall Motors
10/31/2025League #54League #54 · Northern West - 16The Skuna Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atherton Collieries53%
×Draw21%
Vauxhall Motors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atherton Collieries
2.17
Vauxhall Motors
1.50

Atherton Collieries creates 45% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Atherton Collieries
2.33
Vauxhall Motors
2.00

allows per match

Atherton Collieries
1.00
Vauxhall Motors
2.00

finishing

Atherton Collieries+0.00on par
Vauxhall Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atherton Collieries ↓

Vauxhall Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Atherton Collieries or draw
73%
Atherton Collieries or Vauxhall Motors
79%
Draw or Vauxhall Motors
47%

Winning margin

Atherton Collieries wins by 2+
32%
Vauxhall Motors wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atherton Collieries 1+ goals
89%
Atherton Collieries 2+ goals
64%
Atherton Collieries 3+ goals
36%
Vauxhall Motors 1+ goals
78%
Vauxhall Motors 2+ goals
44%
Vauxhall Motors 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atherton Collieries (draw refunded)
66%
Vauxhall Motors (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atherton Collieries at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Vauxhall Motors away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atherton Collieries attack 2.33 + Vauxhall Motors defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vauxhall Motors attack 2.00 + Atherton Collieries defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atherton Collieries scores more
53%
level
21%
Vauxhall Motors scores more
27%

Atherton Collieries at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atherton Collieries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atherton Collieries vs Vauxhall Motors

Atherton Collieries and Vauxhall Motors drew 1-1 in League #54 on October 31, 2025.

The match was played at The Skuna Stadium in Atherton, Greater Manchester.