Fortaleza FC 2–2 Valledupar: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Valledupar

9/19/2018

Primera B · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Fortaleza FC54%

×Draw25%

Valledupar22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchValledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.93

Fortaleza FC

1.63

Valledupar

0.93

Fortaleza FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 89 away

1.80

creates per match

0.87

0.99

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.80

Valledupar

0.87

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.99

Valledupar

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

78%

Fortaleza FC or Valledupar

75%

Draw or Valledupar

46%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

29%

Valledupar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

80%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

48%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

22%

Valledupar 1+ goals

61%

Valledupar 2+ goals

24%

Valledupar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

71%

Valledupar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.99 · 107 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.80 + Valledupar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Valledupar attack 0.87 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

54%

level

25%

Valledupar scores more

22%

Fortaleza FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff