Fortaleza FC 1–1 Valledupar: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Valledupar

3/17/2022

Copa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fortaleza FC60%

×Draw25%

Valledupar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchValledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.63

Fortaleza FC

1.55

Valledupar

0.63

Fortaleza FC creates 146% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

1.10

creates per match

0.50

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.10

Valledupar

0.50

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.75

Valledupar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

85%

Fortaleza FC or Valledupar

75%

Draw or Valledupar

40%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

32%

Valledupar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

79%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

46%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

20%

Valledupar 1+ goals

47%

Valledupar 2+ goals

13%

Valledupar 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

80%

Valledupar (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.10 + Valledupar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Valledupar attack 0.50 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

60%

level

25%

Valledupar scores more

15%

Fortaleza FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff