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Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC — Copa Colombia 2019

Valledupar
Valledupar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
3/2/2022Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Valledupar32%
×Draw30%
Fortaleza FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valledupar
1.00
Fortaleza FC
1.11

Fortaleza FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Valledupar
0.89
Fortaleza FC
1.00

allows per match

Valledupar
1.22
Fortaleza FC
1.10

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw
62%
Valledupar or Fortaleza FC
70%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
68%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+
12%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals
63%
Valledupar 2+ goals
26%
Valledupar 3+ goals
8%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
67%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
30%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)
46%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 0.89 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fortaleza FC attack 1.00 + Valledupar defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valledupar scores more
32%
level
30%
Fortaleza FC scores more
38%

Fortaleza FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Valledupar 0–2 Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC beat Valledupar 2-0 in Copa Colombia on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.