Vasteras SK FK 3–1 Umeå FC: Result & Stats

Vasteras SK FK

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Umeå FC

K. Safari 69', 26'

F. Tronêt 52'

V. Kamf 86'

9/2/2018

Ettan - Norra · Round 20Solid Park Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vasteras SK FK45%

×Draw23%

Umeå FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasteras SK FKExpected goals in this matchUmeå FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.46

Vasteras SK FK

1.77

Umeå FC

1.46

Vasteras SK FK creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 85 away

2.00

creates per match

1.52

1.40

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK

2.00

Umeå FC

1.52

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.40

Umeå FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Umeå FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw

68%

Vasteras SK FK or Umeå FC

77%

Draw or Umeå FC

55%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

24%

Umeå FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

83%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

53%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

26%

Umeå FC 1+ goals

77%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

43%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

58%

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.53 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 2.00 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Umeå FC attack 1.52 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more

45%

level

23%

Umeå FC scores more

32%

Vasteras SK FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

52'

69'

70'

74'

A. De Carolis← M. Wikström

75'

V. Kamf← Saif Kadhim

82'

Y. Getachew← S. Johansson

84'

E. Johansson← B. Alexis

86'

V. Kamf

87'

D. Karlberg← E. Smajic

Vasteras

Umeå

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: T. Gabrielsson

70'▲R. Nushi←▼F. Tronêt

82'▲Y. Getachew←▼S. Johansson

87'▲D. Karlberg←▼E. Smajic

Vasteras SK FK substitutes

NushiGetachewKarlbergSpanSvenssonSalimiBlommé

Manager: A. Jeglertz

74'▲A. De Carolis←▼M. Wikström

75'▲V. Kamf←▼Saif Kadhim

84'▲E. Johansson←▼B. Alexis

Umeå FC substitutes

CarolisKamfJohanssonBäckströmÖrnklooEmbaye