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Umeå FC vs Vasteras SK FK — Superettan 2026

Umeå FC
Umeå FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
11/28/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Umeå Energi Arena SOL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Umeå FC27%
×Draw22%
Vasteras SK FK51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå FC
1.36
Vasteras SK FK
1.93

Vasteras SK FK creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Umeå FC
1.74
Vasteras SK FK
2.33

allows per match

Umeå FC
1.53
Vasteras SK FK
0.98

finishing

Umeå FC-0.88scores less
Vasteras SK FK+0.67scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw
49%
Umeå FC or Vasteras SK FK
78%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
73%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+
12%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals
74%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
39%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
16%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
85%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
57%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)
35%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 7 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.98 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.74 + Vasteras SK FK defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vasteras SK FK attack 2.33 + Umeå FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Umeå FC scores more
27%
level
22%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
51%

Vasteras SK FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
K. Custovic
45'
N. Raaholt
55'
B. Ajeti
62'
A. Sporrong
68'
S. Lindmark← B. Demte
75'
B. Alexis← N. Raaholt
82'
W. Videhult← F. Tronêt
86'
T. McNeil← B. Ajeti
89'
B. Span← S. Johansson
90'
M. Wikstrom
90+3'
J. Julia

Statistics

UmeåVasteras
Overview
0Corners3
Discipline
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Umeå FC vs Vasteras SK FK

Umeå FC and Vasteras SK FK drew 0-0 in Superettan on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Umeå Energi Arena SOL in Umeå.