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Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2026

Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sirius
Sirius
8/31/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Hitachi Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vasteras SK FK40%
×Draw25%
Sirius35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasteras SK FK
1.50
Sirius
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 126 away

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.29
Sirius
1.21

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.57
Sirius
1.72

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw
65%
Vasteras SK FK or Sirius
75%
Draw or Sirius
60%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
19%
Sirius wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
78%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
44%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
19%
Sirius 1+ goals
75%
Sirius 2+ goals
40%
Sirius 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
53%
Sirius (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.29 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sirius attack 1.21 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more
40%
level
25%
Sirius scores more
35%

Vasteras SK FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius

Sirius beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 in Allsvenskan on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Hitachi Energy Arena in Västerås.