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Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK — Allsvenskan 2026

Sirius
Sirius
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
4/18/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 3Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sirius45%
×Draw25%
Vasteras SK FK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirius
1.60
Vasteras SK FK
1.25

Sirius creates 28% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sirius
1.71
Vasteras SK FK
0.95

allows per match

Sirius
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.50

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par
Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sirius or draw
70%
Sirius or Vasteras SK FK
75%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
55%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+
23%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals
80%
Sirius 2+ goals
47%
Sirius 3+ goals
22%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
71%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
36%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)
60%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vasteras SK FK attack 0.95 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sirius scores more
45%
level
25%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
30%

Sirius at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK

Sirius beat Vasteras SK FK 4-1 in Allsvenskan on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.