Vasteras SK FK 0–1 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

Vasteras SK FK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IF Elfsborg

N. Söderberg 63'

4/7/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 2Hitachi Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Vasteras SK FK40%

×Draw26%

IF Elfsborg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasteras SK FKExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Vasteras SK FK

1.42

IF Elfsborg

1.29

Vasteras SK FK creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.25

creates per match

1.35

1.23

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.25

IF Elfsborg

1.35

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.23

IF Elfsborg

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw

66%

Vasteras SK FK or IF Elfsborg

74%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

60%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

19%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

76%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

41%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

17%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

72%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

37%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

54%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.23 · 8 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.25 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

IF Elfsborg attack 1.35 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more

40%

level

26%

IF Elfsborg scores more

34%

Vasteras SK FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Nsabiyumva

Vasteras SK FK · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

39'

39'

63'

65'

76'

76'

Pedro Ribeiro← M. Ahlinvi

76'

G. Rapp← A. Zeneli

76'

T. Ouma← J. Thomasen

88'

I. Jönsson← A. Douglas

88'

M. Marqués← S. Johansson

90+2'

H. Offia← P. Åslund

90+1'

D. Krasniqi← M. Baidoo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VasterasIF

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots14

3Corners1

8Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots14

1On Target5

6Off Target3

3Blocked6

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

539Total Passes459

437Accurate Passes367

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

5Offsides4