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IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
R. Kaib 45+1'
11/2/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 29Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

IF Elfsborg50%
×Draw23%
Vasteras SK FK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.79
Vasteras SK FK
1.25

IF Elfsborg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.55
Vasteras SK FK
1.20

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.29
Vasteras SK FK
2.02

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.27scores more
Vasteras SK FK-0.49scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
73%
IF Elfsborg or Vasteras SK FK
77%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
50%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
27%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
83%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
53%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
26%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
71%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
36%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
65%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.29 · 22 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.02 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.55 + Vasteras SK FK defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.20 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
50%
level
23%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
27%

IF Elfsborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. HedlundIF ElfsborgIF Elfsborg · M
7.5

Match Events

45+1'
R. Kaib↳ S. Hedlund
46'
J. Thomasen← T. Ouma
54'
Buhari Ibrahim
58'
L. Richtnér← G. Rapp
58'
A. Qasem← E. Guðmundsson
58'
K. Gunnarsson← M. Linday
58'
A. Boudah← C. Jebara
70'
J. Abdullai← A. Zeneli
72'
S. Johansson← Y. Sanyang
72'
V. Wernersson← A. Warneryd
81'
N. Hult← R. Kaib
83'
D. Ask← M. Ahlinvi

Possession

38%IF

Shots

18IF

Pass accuracy

48%IF

Statistics

IFVasteras
Overview
38%Possession62%
18Total Shots10
1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.95
6Corners9
19Fouls6
Shots
18Total Shots10
4On Target2
10Off Target4
4Blocked4
15Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
376Total Passes618
302Accurate Passes523
80%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
7Offsides1

Match Recap: IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK

IF Elfsborg beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 in Allsvenskan on November 2, 2024.

Goals: R. Kaib (45+1').

Vasteras SK FK controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.