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VAST vs Skala 1911 Stryi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

VAST
VAST
CANC
00:00
Skala 1911 Stryi
Skala 1911 Stryi
11/23/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VAST32%
×Draw25%
Skala 1911 Stryi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VAST
1.31
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.57

Skala 1911 Stryi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 37 away

creates per match

VAST
1.36
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.51

allows per match

VAST
1.64
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.27

finishing

VAST+0.00on par
Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VAST ↓

Skala 1911 Stryi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

VAST or draw
57%
VAST or Skala 1911 Stryi
75%
Draw or Skala 1911 Stryi
68%

Winning margin

VAST wins by 2+
14%
Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

VAST 1+ goals
73%
VAST 2+ goals
38%
VAST 3+ goals
14%
Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals
79%
Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals
46%
Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

VAST (draw refunded)
42%
Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VAST at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Skala 1911 Stryi away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VAST attack 1.36 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.51 + VAST defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VAST scores more
32%
level
25%
Skala 1911 Stryi scores more
43%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VAST face Skala 1911 Stryi (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with VAST hosting Skala 1911 Stryi. Match starts November 23, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.