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Skala 1911 Stryi vs VAST — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Skala 1911 Stryi
Skala 1911 Stryi
CANC
12:00
VAST
VAST
8/27/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 4Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Skala 1911 Stryi66%
×Draw18%
VAST17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skala 1911 Stryi
2.55
VAST
1.22

Skala 1911 Stryi creates 109% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.97
VAST
0.93

allows per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.50
VAST
3.13

finishing

Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par
VAST+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skala 1911 Stryi ↓

VAST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Skala 1911 Stryi or draw
83%
Skala 1911 Stryi or VAST
82%
Draw or VAST
34%

Winning margin

Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+
44%
VAST wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals
92%
Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals
72%
Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals
46%
VAST 1+ goals
70%
VAST 2+ goals
34%
VAST 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)
80%
VAST (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skala 1911 Stryi at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

VAST away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.97 + VAST defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.55

VAST attack 0.93 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Skala 1911 Stryi scores more
66%
level
18%
VAST scores more
17%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Skala 1911 Stryi vs VAST — Match Preview

Skala 1911 Stryi face VAST on August 27, 2023 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Skala 1911 Stryi host VAST at Stadion Sokil.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.