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Văsieni vs Spartanii Selemet — Cupa 2020

Văsieni
Văsieni
FT
0 – 3
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
8/24/2021CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Sătesc Văsieni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Văsieni23%
×Draw20%
Spartanii Selemet57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Văsieni
1.45
Spartanii Selemet
2.34

Spartanii Selemet creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Văsieni
0.75
Spartanii Selemet
1.43

allows per match

Văsieni
3.25
Spartanii Selemet
2.14

finishing

Văsieni+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Văsieni ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Văsieni or draw
43%
Văsieni or Spartanii Selemet
80%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
77%

Winning margin

Văsieni wins by 2+
10%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Văsieni 1+ goals
77%
Văsieni 2+ goals
42%
Văsieni 3+ goals
18%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
90%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
67%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Văsieni (draw refunded)
29%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Văsieni at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Văsieni attack 0.75 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.43 + Văsieni defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Văsieni scores more
23%
level
20%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
57%

Spartanii Selemet at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spartanii Selemet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Văsieni vs Spartanii Selemet

Spartanii Selemet beat Văsieni 3-0 in Cupa on August 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Sătesc Văsieni in Văsieni.