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Spartanii Selemet vs Văsieni — League #395 2026

Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
FT
4 – 0
Văsieni
Văsieni
10/22/2022League #395League #395 · Round 8Stadionul Selemet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spartanii Selemet90%
×Draw7%
Văsieni3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartanii Selemet
3.83
Văsieni
0.67

Spartanii Selemet creates 472% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spartanii Selemet
4.00
Văsieni
1.33

allows per match

Spartanii Selemet
0.00
Văsieni
3.67

finishing

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par
Văsieni+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartanii Selemet ↓

Văsieni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Spartanii Selemet or draw
97%
Spartanii Selemet or Văsieni
93%
Draw or Văsieni
10%

Winning margin

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
76%
Văsieni wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
98%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
88%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
71%
Văsieni 1+ goals
49%
Văsieni 2+ goals
15%
Văsieni 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
97%
Văsieni (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartanii Selemet at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Văsieni away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartanii Selemet attack 4.00 + Văsieni defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Văsieni attack 1.33 + Spartanii Selemet defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Spartanii Selemet scores more
90%
level
7%
Văsieni scores more
3%

Spartanii Selemet at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Spartanii Selemet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Spartanii Selemet 4–0 Văsieni

Spartanii Selemet beat Văsieni 4-0 in League #395 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Selemet in Selemet.