Vasco U17 1–1 Flamengo RJ U17: Result & Stats

Vasco U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Flamengo RJ U17

6/23/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vasco U1736%

×Draw25%

Flamengo RJ U1739%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco U17Expected goals in this matchFlamengo RJ U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.46

Vasco U17

1.40

Flamengo RJ U17

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.36

creates per match

1.56

1.36

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Vasco U17

1.36

Flamengo RJ U17

1.56

allows per match

Vasco U17

1.36

Flamengo RJ U17

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw

61%

Vasco U17 or Flamengo RJ U17

75%

Draw or Flamengo RJ U17

64%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

17%

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals

75%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

41%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

17%

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals

77%

Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals

43%

Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

48%

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 1.36 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.56 + Vasco U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vasco U17 scores more

36%

level

25%

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more

39%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff