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Flamengo RJ U17 vs Vasco U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Vasco U17
Vasco U17advanced
L. Melim 60' (OG)
Ryan Roberto 30'
Andrey Fernandes 88', 66'
Davi 57'
D. Minete 39'
4/22/2025Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Semi-finalsEstádio Luso-Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Flamengo RJ U1743%
×Draw20%
Vasco U1738%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo RJ U17
2.37
Vasco U17
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Flamengo RJ U17
3.40
Vasco U17
2.67

allows per match

Flamengo RJ U17
1.80
Vasco U17
1.33

finishing

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par
Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 83Under: 1783%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 81No: 1981%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo RJ U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Flamengo RJ U17 or draw
62%
Flamengo RJ U17 or Vasco U17
80%
Draw or Vasco U17
57%

Winning margin

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
25%
Vasco U17 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
91%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
68%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
42%
Vasco U17 1+ goals
89%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
65%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
53%
Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo RJ U17 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 3.40 + Vasco U17 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Vasco U17 attack 2.67 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
43%
level
20%
Vasco U17 scores more
38%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Ryan Roberto
39'
D. Minete
57'
Davi
60'
L. MelimOwn goal
66'
Andrey Fernandes
88'
Andrey Fernandes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: Flamengo RJ U17 2–4 Vasco U17

Vasco U17 beat Flamengo RJ U17 4-2 in Copa do Brasil U17 on April 22, 2025.

Goals: Ryan Roberto (30'), D. Minete (39'), Davi (57'), L. Melim (60' o.g.), Andrey Fernandes (66', 88').

The match was played at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.