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Vasco U17 vs Bahia U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Vasco U17
Vasco U17
Preview
20:00
Bahia U17
Bahia U17
9/15/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 17
55%
Vasco U17
model favours
55%23%22%

Bahia U17 score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vasco U1755%
×Draw23%
Bahia U1722%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco U17
1.77
Bahia U17
1.02

Vasco U17 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Bahia U17
0.67

allows per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Bahia U17
2.17

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw
78%
Vasco U17 or Bahia U17
77%
Draw or Bahia U17
45%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+
31%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals
83%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
53%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
26%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
64%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
27%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
72%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 1.36 + Bahia U17 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bahia U17 attack 0.67 + Vasco U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vasco U17 scores more
55%
level
23%
Bahia U17 scores more
22%

Vasco U17 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bahia U17 win just 0% of their away games
  • 79% of Vasco U17’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LLDWD
U17
DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vasco U17 face Bahia U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Vasco U17 hosting Bahia U17. Match starts September 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.