Bahia U17 4–5 Vasco U17: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia U17Expected goals in this matchVasco U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.86

Bahia U17

1.60

Vasco U17

1.86

Vasco U17 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

1.61

creates per match

1.73

2.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Bahia U17

1.61

Vasco U17

1.73

allows per match

Bahia U17

2.00

Vasco U17

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw

56%

Bahia U17 or Vasco U17

78%

Draw or Vasco U17

66%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+

16%

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals

80%

Bahia U17 2+ goals

47%

Bahia U17 3+ goals

22%

Vasco U17 1+ goals

84%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

55%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)

43%

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Vasco U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vasco U17 attack 1.73 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bahia U17 scores more

34%

level

22%

Vasco U17 scores more

44%

Vasco U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

6'

9'

10'

19'

26'

42'

58'

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff