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Vasco U17 vs Bahia U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Vasco U17
Vasco U17
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bahia U17
Bahia U17
Breno Sales 120+5' (pen)
V. Joao 120+4' (pen)
Emanuel 120+3' (pen)
Pedro Augusto 120+2' (pen)
Lucas Rafael 120+1' (pen)
Cristofer 47'
Andrey Fernandes 42' (pen)
Emmanuel 120+4' (pen)
Emerson 120+3' (pen)
L. Andrade 120+1' (pen)
Anthony 76'
L. Melim 66'
5/6/2025Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · FinalsEstádio Luso-Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vasco U1749%
×Draw21%
Bahia U1730%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco U17
2.13
Bahia U17
1.63

Vasco U17 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vasco U17
3.25
Bahia U17
2.75

allows per match

Vasco U17
0.50
Bahia U17
1.00

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw
70%
Vasco U17 or Bahia U17
79%
Draw or Bahia U17
51%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+
29%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals
88%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
63%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
35%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
80%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
48%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
62%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 3.25 + Bahia U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Bahia U17 attack 2.75 + Vasco U17 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vasco U17 scores more
49%
level
21%
Bahia U17 scores more
30%

Vasco U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Andrey FernandesPenalty
45+9'
Kaique
47'
Cristofer
66'
L. Melim
76'
Anthony
77'
Anthony
120+1'
Lucas RafaelPenalty
120+1'
L. AndradePenalty
120+2'
Pedro AugustoPenalty
120+2'
Victor GuilhermeMissed penalty
120+3'
EmanuelPenalty
120+3'
EmersonPenalty
120+4'
V. JoaoPenalty
120+4'
EmmanuelPenalty
120+5'
Breno SalesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasco U17 vs Bahia U17

Vasco U17 and Bahia U17 drew 2-2 in Copa do Brasil U17 on May 6, 2025.

Goals: Andrey Fernandes (42' pen), Cristofer (47'), L. Melim (66'), Anthony (76'), Lucas Rafael (120+1' pen), L. Andrade (120+1' pen), Pedro Augusto (120+2' pen), Emanuel (120+3' pen), Emerson (120+3' pen), V. Joao (120+4' pen), Emmanuel (120+4' pen), Breno Sales (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.