Vasco DA Gama 3–1 Tombense: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tombense

8/13/2022

Serie B · Round 24Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Vasco DA Gama56%

×Draw25%

Tombense19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.81

Vasco DA Gama

1.58

Tombense

0.81

Vasco DA Gama creates 95% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.50

creates per match

0.74

0.89

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.50

Tombense

0.74

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.89

Tombense

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

81%

Vasco DA Gama or Tombense

75%

Draw or Tombense

44%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

30%

Tombense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

79%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

47%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

21%

Tombense 1+ goals

56%

Tombense 2+ goals

19%

Tombense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

74%

Tombense (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.50 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tombense attack 0.74 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

56%

level

25%

Tombense scores more

19%

Vasco DA Gama at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff