Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tombense vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie B 2026

Tombense
Tombense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
5/1/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 5Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tombense47%
×Draw28%
Vasco DA Gama25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.33
Vasco DA Gama
0.89

Tombense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.24
Vasco DA Gama
0.89

allows per match

Tombense
0.89
Vasco DA Gama
1.42

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
75%
Tombense or Vasco DA Gama
72%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
53%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
22%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
74%
Tombense 2+ goals
38%
Tombense 3+ goals
15%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
59%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
22%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
65%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.89 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tombense scores more
47%
level
28%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
25%

Tombense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs Vasco DA Gama

Tombense and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Soares de Azevedo in Muriaé, Minas Gerais.