Vasco DA Gama 0–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

7/3/2022

Serie B · Round 16Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vasco DA Gama28%

×Draw33%

Sport Recife40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.00

Vasco DA Gama

0.78

Sport Recife

1.00

Sport Recife creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

0.50

creates per match

0.76

1.25

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.50

Sport Recife

0.76

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.25

Sport Recife

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–117%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

60%

Vasco DA Gama or Sport Recife

67%

Draw or Sport Recife

72%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

9%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

54%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

18%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

4%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

63%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

26%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

41%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.50 + Sport Recife defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.78

Sport Recife attack 0.76 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

28%

level

33%

Sport Recife scores more

40%

Sport Recife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

56

Sander

Sport Recife · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

Giovanni

30'

J. Parraguez← Kayke

68'

Juninho← Yuri Lara

71'

R. Vanegas← Luciano Juba

71'

Bruno Matias← B. Cáceres

71'

Thiago Lopes← Willian Oliveira

76'

Gabriel Pec

76'

Alan← Giovanni

80'

Zé Vitor← Danilo Boza

80'

Getúlio← Raniel

82'

Andrey Santos

84'

Edimar

85'

Bruno Nazário← C. Palacios

86'

Riquelme← Gabriel Pec

87'

Ray Vanegas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoSport

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots10

9Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target5

9Off Target1

3Blocked4

9Inside Box1

5Outside Box9

Passing

53%Possession47%

422Total Passes397

351Accurate Passes311

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife

Vasco DA Gama and Sport Recife drew 0-0 in Serie B on July 3, 2022.

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.

Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vasco DA Gama vs Sport Recife