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Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie B 2026

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
F. Labandeira 65'
Raniel 90+5' (pen)
10/16/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 35Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sport Recife50%
×Draw28%
Vasco DA Gama22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.38
Vasco DA Gama
0.81

Sport Recife creates 70% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.75
Vasco DA Gama
0.67

allows per match

Sport Recife
0.95
Vasco DA Gama
1.00

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
78%
Sport Recife or Vasco DA Gama
72%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
50%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
24%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
75%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
40%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
16%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
56%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
19%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
70%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.75 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.67 + Sport Recife defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sport Recife scores more
50%
level
28%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
22%

Sport Recife at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'
Luiz Henrique
45+1'
Gustavo Coutinho
46'
Alex Teixeira← Miranda
46'
Raniel← Nenê
55'
Gabriel Pec← Marlon Gomes
62'
Wanderson← Gustavo Coutinho
65'
F. Labandeira
72'
Ronaldo Henrique
72'
C. Palacios← Yuri Lara
76'
Denner← Luciano Juba
80'
Giovanni← F. Labandeira
80'
Chico← Sabino
80'
Willian Oliveira← Ronaldo
80'
Erick← Eguinaldo
90+6'
Raniel
90+5'
Raniel
90+6'
Raniel
90'
RanielPenalty awarded
90+5'
RanielPenalty

Possession

63%Sport

Shots

20Sport

Pass accuracy

53%Sport

Statistics

SportVasco
Overview
63%Possession37%
20Total Shots8
8Corners5
13Fouls7
Shots
20Total Shots8
3On Target3
9Off Target3
8Blocked2
12Inside Box5
8Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
371Total Passes233
278Accurate Passes153
75%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Vasco DA Gama

Sport Recife and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 16, 2022.

Goals: F. Labandeira (65'), Raniel (90+5' pen).

Sport Recife controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.