Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Puerto Cabello: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Puerto Cabello

P. Vegetti 45'

4/9/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vasco DA Gama72%

×Draw21%

Puerto Cabello7%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchPuerto Cabello

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.38

Vasco DA Gama

1.77

Puerto Cabello

0.38

Vasco DA Gama creates 366% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

0.33

0.43

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.71

Puerto Cabello

0.33

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.43

Puerto Cabello

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Puerto Cabello →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

93%

Vasco DA Gama or Puerto Cabello

79%

Draw or Puerto Cabello

28%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

43%

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

83%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

53%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

26%

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals

32%

Puerto Cabello 2+ goals

6%

Puerto Cabello 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

91%

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.71 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Puerto Cabello attack 0.33 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

72%

level

21%

Puerto Cabello scores more

7%

Vasco DA Gama at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Lucas Piton

Vasco DA Gama · D

8.2

Match Events

42'

Junior Paredes

45'

P. Vegetti↳ B. Garre

52'

Mamadou Mbaye

59'

Awudu Abdul← J. Paredes

59'

D. Osorio← R. Guerrero

59'

J. Echeverria← S. Khelifi

60'

Nuno Moreira

62'

Luis Casiani

67'

O. Gonzalez← M. Mbaye

74'

D. Payet← Coutinho

74'

L. Augusto← B. Garre

80'

Pablo Vegetti

81'

Rayan← N. Moreira

81'

Paulinho Paula← Tche Tche

84'

Jorge Echeverría

90'

J. Cedeno← H. Contreras

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoPuerto

Overview

58%Possession42%

22Total Shots5

5Corners4

17Fouls18

Shots

22Total Shots5

10On Target1

7Off Target4

5Blocked0

12Inside Box2

10Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

441Total Passes323

372Accurate Passes261

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

17Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4