Puerto Cabello 4–1 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Puerto Cabello

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vasco DA Gama

J. Paredes 66', 29' (pen)

R. Guerrero 61'

G. Padron 50'

Joao Victor 39'

5/7/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Puerto Cabello66%

×Draw19%

Vasco DA Gama15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto CabelloExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.93

Puerto Cabello

2.21

Vasco DA Gama

0.93

Puerto Cabello creates 138% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.14

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Puerto Cabello

2.14

Vasco DA Gama

1.00

allows per match

Puerto Cabello

0.86

Vasco DA Gama

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw

85%

Puerto Cabello or Vasco DA Gama

81%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

34%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+

43%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals

89%

Puerto Cabello 2+ goals

65%

Puerto Cabello 3+ goals

38%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

61%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

24%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)

82%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 2.14 + Vasco DA Gama defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.00 + Puerto Cabello defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more

66%

level

19%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

15%

Puerto Cabello at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43

G. Padron

Puerto Cabello · M

8.9

Match Events

29'

J. ParedesPenalty

39'

Joao Victor↳ Lucas Piton

50'

G. Padron↳ J. Paredes

56'

Mamadou Mbaye

56'

Paulinho Paula← Mateus Carvalho

56'

N. Moreira← Tche Tche

58'

Paulinho Paula

61'

R. Guerrero↳ D. Meza

65'

Awudu Abdul← R. Guerrero

66'

J. Paredes↳ G. Padron

70'

Adson← Rayan

74'

O. Gonzalez← H. Linares

75'

O. Hernandez← J. Paredes

75'

N. Manzambi← D. Meza

78'

João Victor

79'

J. Rodriguez← Coutinho

79'

B. Garre← Paulo Henrique

82'

J. Echeverria← H. Contreras

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PuertoVasco

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots11

5Corners8

10Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target4

6Off Target3

1Blocked4

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

272Total Passes419

207Accurate Passes367

76%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Puerto Cabello 4–1 Vasco DA Gama

Puerto Cabello beat Vasco DA Gama 4-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 7, 2025.

Goals: J. Paredes (29' pen, 66'), Joao Victor (39'), G. Padron (50'), R. Guerrero (61').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Socialista in Puerto Cabello.

Puerto Cabello vs Vasco DA Gama — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Puerto Cabello 4–1 Vasco DA Gama