Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ponte Preta

Mateus Vital 74'

Paulinho 28'

Lucca 89' (pen)

12/3/2017

Serie A · Round 38São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Vasco DA Gama47%

×Draw26%

Ponte Preta26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.01

Vasco DA Gama

1.45

Ponte Preta

1.01

Vasco DA Gama creates 44% more chances

Season form · 217 home / 94 away

1.35

creates per match

0.83

1.19

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.35

Ponte Preta

0.83

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.19

Ponte Preta

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

74%

Vasco DA Gama or Ponte Preta

74%

Draw or Ponte Preta

53%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

23%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

77%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

42%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

18%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

64%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

27%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

64%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.19 · 217 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.54 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.35 + Ponte Preta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ponte Preta attack 0.83 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

47%

level

26%

Ponte Preta scores more

26%

Vasco DA Gama at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Yago Picachu

Vasco DA Gama · M

8.0

Match Events

28'

Paulinho↳ Yago Picachu

29'

32'

35'

38'

45'

46'

54'

57'

67'

69'

70'

Jean← Evander

74'

Mateus Vital

77'

Claudinho← Danilo Barcelos

77'

Naldo← Wendel

81'

Éder Luís← Mádson

83'

Felipe← Leo Melo

87'

Elton

89'

LuccaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoPonte

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots10

5Corners4

18Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots10

8On Target1

3Off Target7

3Blocked2

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

339Total Passes327

254Accurate Passes253

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls16

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Ponte Preta

Vasco DA Gama beat Ponte Preta 2-1 in Serie A on December 3, 2017.

Goals: Paulinho (28'), Mateus Vital (74'), Lucca (89' pen).

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.

Vasco DA Gama vs Ponte Preta — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Ponte Preta