Ponte Preta 1–1 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Ponte Preta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Renatinho 59'

G. Cano 56' (pen)

6/6/2021

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ponte Preta45%

×Draw28%

Vasco DA Gama27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.93

Ponte Preta

1.29

Vasco DA Gama

0.93

Ponte Preta creates 39% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 43 away

1.18

creates per match

0.84

1.01

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.18

Vasco DA Gama

0.84

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.01

Vasco DA Gama

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

73%

Ponte Preta or Vasco DA Gama

72%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

55%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

20%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

72%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

37%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

14%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

61%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

24%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

63%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.18 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.84 + Ponte Preta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

45%

level

28%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

27%

Ponte Preta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

Zeca

Vasco DA Gama · D

7.5

Match Events

15'

Léo Matos

35'

Rafael Santos

46'

Léo Jabá← Morato

46'

Marquinhos Gabriel← M. Sarrafiore

46'

Michel← Léo Matos

55'

Renatinho

56'

G. CanoPenalty

59'

Renatinho↳ Camilo

69'

Paulo Sérgio← Renatinho

69'

Pedrinho← Niltinho

75'

Jean Carlos← Rafael Santos

76'

Figueiredo← Gabriel Pec

81'

Vinícius← Leo

82'

M. Galarza← Andrey

85'

Ruan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonteVasco

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots7

3Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target1

8Off Target5

3Blocked1

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

393Total Passes459

314Accurate Passes376

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0