Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Mirassol: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mirassol

Carlos Eduardo 90'

Renato Marques 70'

12/2/2025

Serie A · Round 37Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Vasco DA Gama46%

×Draw25%

Mirassol29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.22

Vasco DA Gama

1.60

Mirassol

1.22

Vasco DA Gama creates 31% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

1.68

creates per match

1.34

1.10

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.68

Mirassol

1.34

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.10

Mirassol

1.53

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Vasco DA Gama-0.35scores less

Mirassol-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

71%

Vasco DA Gama or Mirassol

75%

Draw or Mirassol

54%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

24%

Mirassol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

80%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

47%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

22%

Mirassol 1+ goals

70%

Mirassol 2+ goals

34%

Mirassol 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

61%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 24 matches

Mirassol away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.53 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.68 + Mirassol defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mirassol attack 1.34 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

46%

level

25%

Mirassol scores more

29%

Vasco DA Gama at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Walter

Mirassol · G

8.3

Match Events

39'

Carlos Cuesta

59'

Neto Moura

62'

Carlos Eduardo← Alesson

63'

Guilherme← Shaylon

67'

J. Rodriguez← Lucas Piton

69'

Nuno Moreira

69'

Yago Felipe← Neto Moura

70'

Renato Marques↳ Carlos Eduardo

75'

Tche Tche← Thiago Mendes

75'

David← N. Moreira

79'

Lucas Ramon

80'

Renato Marques

80'

P. Vegetti← C. A. Gomez

81'

Luiz Otavio← Negueba

81'

Cristian Renato← Renato Marques

90'

Carlos Eduardo↳ Cristian Renato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoMirassol

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots8

0.48Expected Goals (xG)1.23

10Corners1

21Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target4

4Off Target1

5Blocked3

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

438Total Passes445

368Accurate Passes371

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.27Goals Prevented0.27

Discipline

21Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3