Mirassol vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 15+ matches
Mirassol47%
Vasco DA Gama27%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mirassol creates 40% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mirassol ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mirassol at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches
Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mirassol attack 1.54 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46
Vasco DA Gama attack 0.96 + Mirassol defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Mirassol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Flamengo
Palmeiras
CruzeiroMirassol
Fluminense
Botafogo
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG
Santos
CorinthiansVasco DA Gama
Vitoria
Internacional
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
Juventude
Sport RecifeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Mirassol host Vasco DA Gama on Saturday, 2 August 2025 at 21:30. The match is part of the Serie A 2025/2026 season.
Serie A: Mirassol 3–2 Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol beat Vasco DA Gama 3-2 in Serie A on August 2, 2025.
Goals: Negueba (51'), Chico (58'), J. Rodriguez (66'), P. Vegetti (70'), Alesson (83').
Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 13.
The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol.