Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Londrina: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Londrina

Marquinhos Gabriel 54'

Alisson Safira 88' (pen)

Marcelinho 71'

8/19/2021

Serie B · Round 19Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vasco DA Gama53%

×Draw26%

Londrina21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.83

Vasco DA Gama

1.50

Londrina

0.83

Vasco DA Gama creates 81% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 90 away

1.58

creates per match

0.76

0.91

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.58

Londrina

0.76

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.91

Londrina

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

79%

Vasco DA Gama or Londrina

74%

Draw or Londrina

47%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

27%

Londrina wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

78%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

44%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

19%

Londrina 1+ goals

56%

Londrina 2+ goals

20%

Londrina 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

72%

Londrina (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.58 + Londrina defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Londrina attack 0.76 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

53%

level

26%

Londrina scores more

21%

Vasco DA Gama at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Alisson Safira

Londrina · F

8.2

Match Events

46'

Bruno Gomes← Juninho

46'

Dalton← César

49'

Saimon

54'

Marquinhos Gabriel

59'

Caprini← Celsinho

71'

Marcelinho

75'

Gabriel Pec← M. Sarrafiore

79'

Matheus Bianqui

80'

Bidía← Gegé

82'

Tarik

85'

Luiz Henrique← Marcelinho

85'

Jean Henrique← Tárik

88'

M. Galarza← Marquinhos Gabriel

88'

Caio Lopes← Rômulo

88'

Figueiredo← Léo Jabá

88'

Alisson SafiraPenalty

89'

Safira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoLondrina

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots13

8Corners4

14Fouls33

Shots

16Total Shots13

3On Target6

7Off Target4

6Blocked3

6Inside Box7

10Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

490Total Passes332

416Accurate Passes255

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls33

0Yellow Cards4