Londrina 0–1 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Londrina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Raniel 48'

6/18/2022

Serie B · Round 13Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Londrina45%

×Draw28%

Vasco DA Gama26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LondrinaExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.92

Londrina

1.30

Vasco DA Gama

0.92

Londrina creates 41% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 43 away

1.21

creates per match

0.84

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Londrina

1.21

Vasco DA Gama

0.84

allows per match

Londrina

1.00

Vasco DA Gama

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Londrina or draw

74%

Londrina or Vasco DA Gama

72%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

55%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+

21%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals

73%

Londrina 2+ goals

37%

Londrina 3+ goals

14%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

60%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

23%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)

63%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.21 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.84 + Londrina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Londrina scores more

45%

level

28%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

26%

Londrina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Caprini

Londrina · F

7.7

Match Events

45+2'

Weverton← Gabriel Dias

46'

Raniel← Getúlio

48'

Raniel

51'

Marcinho

52'

Edimar

53'

Matheus Lucas← Mirandinha

60'

63'

70'

77'

77'

Zé Gabriel← Yuri Lara

77'

Matheus Barbosa← Gabriel Pec

81'

Jean Henrique← Mandaca

81'

Watson← Douglas Coutinho

81'

Felipe Vieira← Eltinho

82'

Raniel

84'

Erick← Figueiredo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LondrinaVasco

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots8

6Corners2

19Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots8

2On Target4

12Off Target4

1Blocked0

6Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

369Total Passes431

262Accurate Passes335

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2