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Vasco DA Gama vs Lanus — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lanus
Lanus
4/23/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vasco DA Gama50%
×Draw28%
Lanus22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco DA Gama
1.35
Lanus
0.78

Vasco DA Gama creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.71
Lanus
1.14

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama
0.43
Lanus
1.00

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par
Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Lanus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw
78%
Vasco DA Gama or Lanus
72%
Draw or Lanus
50%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
24%
Lanus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
74%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
39%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
15%
Lanus 1+ goals
54%
Lanus 2+ goals
18%
Lanus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
70%
Lanus (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.71 + Lanus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lanus attack 1.14 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more
50%
level
28%
Lanus scores more
22%

Vasco DA Gama at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96
Paulo HenriqueVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama · D
8.6

Match Events

6'
Eduardo Salvio
32'
Jair
48'
Carlos Izquierdoz
48'
Armando Méndez
61'
Bruno Cabrera
68'
Adson← Coutinho
68'
R. Carrera← A. Segovia
69'
Paulinho Paula← Jair
79'
Adson
80'
F. Pena Biafore← A. Medina
80'
D. Aquino← B. Cabrera
81'
Alex Teixeira← N. Moreira
88'
E. Munoz← A. Mendez
88'
J. Ramirez← Marcelino Moreno
90+1'
Lukas Zuccarello← Rayan
90+1'
Mateus Carvalho← Hugo Moura

Possession

67%Vasco

Shots

13Vasco

Pass accuracy

54%Vasco

Statistics

VascoLanus
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots14
6Corners5
13Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots14
2On Target1
6Off Target8
5Blocked5
7Inside Box6
6Outside Box8
Passing
67%Possession33%
537Total Passes271
483Accurate Passes205
90%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Vasco DA Gama vs Lanus

Vasco DA Gama and Lanus drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 23, 2025.

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.