Lanus 1–0 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

R. Carrera 53'

5/14/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lanus68%

×Draw20%

Vasco DA Gama13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.75

Lanus

2.06

Vasco DA Gama

0.75

Lanus creates 175% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.83

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Lanus

1.83

Vasco DA Gama

1.00

allows per match

Lanus

0.50

Vasco DA Gama

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

87%

Lanus or Vasco DA Gama

80%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

32%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

43%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

87%

Lanus 2+ goals

61%

Lanus 3+ goals

34%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

53%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

17%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

84%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.83 + Vasco DA Gama defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.00 + Lanus defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lanus scores more

68%

level

20%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

13%

Lanus at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Marcelino Moreno

Lanus · M

7.7

Match Events

37'

Marcelino Moreno

38'

Hugo Moura

53'

R. Carrera↳ S. Marcich

58'

João Victor

72'

A. Segovia← E. Salvio

73'

A. Canelo← W. Bou

73'

Paulinho Paula← Luiz Gustavo

73'

Adson← Rayan

82'

Mateus Carvalho← Tche Tche

82'

Alex Teixeira← Coutinho

83'

Hugo Moura

83'

Hugo Moura

87'

Paulinho Paula

87'

J. Ramirez← R. Carrera

88'

Lucas Oliveira← N. Moreira

90'

E. Munoz← A. Mendez

90+1'

F. Orozco← Marcelino Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusVasco

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots8

4Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots8

3On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

375Total Passes522

302Accurate Passes444

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1