Vasco DA Gama 1–3 Juventude: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Juventude

Rayan 27'

Ewerthon 89'

Nene 45'

Marcelo Hermes 39'

11/8/2025

Serie A · Round 33Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vasco DA Gama56%

×Draw23%

Juventude21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.04

Vasco DA Gama

1.85

Juventude

1.04

Vasco DA Gama creates 78% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 22 away

1.47

creates per match

0.77

1.30

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.47

Juventude

0.77

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.30

Juventude

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Juventude+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

79%

Vasco DA Gama or Juventude

77%

Draw or Juventude

44%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

32%

Juventude wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

84%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

55%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

28%

Juventude 1+ goals

65%

Juventude 2+ goals

28%

Juventude 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

73%

Juventude (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.47 + Juventude defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Juventude attack 0.77 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

56%

level

23%

Juventude scores more

21%

Vasco DA Gama at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Gabriel Taliari

Juventude · F

7.7

Match Events

26'

Jadson← Caique Goncalves

27'

Rayan↳ Lucas Piton

28'

RayanGoal confirmed

30'

Marcos Paulo← W. Angel

37'

Rodrigo Sam

39'

Marcelo Hermes↳ Gabriel Taliari

45'

Nene↳ Jadson

46'

Tche Tche← Hugo Moura

46'

51'

53'

55'

58'

59'

Matheus Franca← N. Moreira

66'

Igor Formiga

70'

Ewerthon← Nene

70'

Giovanny← Peixoto

71'

P. Vegetti← C. A. Gomez

78'

J. Rodriguez← C. Cuesta

78'

GB← Lucas Piton

79'

88'

88'

89'

90+1'

EwerthonGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoJuventude

Overview

71%Possession29%

14Total Shots10

1.45Expected Goals (xG)1.80

7Corners1

18Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked0

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

576Total Passes236

531Accurate Passes192

92%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.43Goals Prevented-0.43

Discipline

18Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 1–3 Juventude

Juventude beat Vasco DA Gama 3-1 in Serie A on November 8, 2025.

Goals: Rayan (27'), Marcelo Hermes (39'), Nene (45'), Ewerthon (89').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (71%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.

Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 1–3 Juventude