Juventude 2–0 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Juventude

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Gabriel Taliari 16'

Nene 3' (pen)

8/20/2025

Serie A · Round 14Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Juventude40%

×Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.24

Juventude

1.38

Vasco DA Gama

1.24

Juventude creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 41 away

1.05

creates per match

1.15

1.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Juventude

1.05

Vasco DA Gama

1.15

allows per match

Juventude

1.33

Vasco DA Gama

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

66%

Juventude or Vasco DA Gama

74%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

60%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

19%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

75%

Juventude 2+ goals

40%

Juventude 3+ goals

16%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

71%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

35%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

54%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.71 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.05 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.15 + Juventude defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventude scores more

40%

level

26%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

34%

Juventude at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

W. Angel

Juventude · D

7.7

Match Events

3'

NenePenalty

7'

Abner

16'

Gabriel Taliari↳ E. Batalla

37'

Lucas Freitas

57'

Enio← E. Batalla

57'

Gabriel Veron← Nene

57'

David← P. Vegetti

57'

GB← Thiago Mendes

62'

Luis Mandaca

63'

Victor Luis← Lucas Freitas

65'

D. Giraldo← Caique Goncalves

78'

Igor Formiga← Reginaldo

78'

Matheus Babi← Gabriel Taliari

86'

Leo Jaco← N. Moreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeVasco

Overview

23%Possession77%

10Total Shots14

1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.55

1Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots14

5On Target2

3Off Target8

2Blocked4

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

23%Possession77%

255Total Passes843

202Accurate Passes795

79%Pass Accuracy94%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.91Goals Prevented-0.91

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0