Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vasco DA Gama vs FBC Melgar — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
P. Vegetti 44'
Paulo Henrique 33'
Rayan 3'
5/27/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vasco DA Gama73%
×Draw20%
FBC Melgar7%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco DA Gama
1.85
FBC Melgar
0.38

Vasco DA Gama creates 387% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.71
FBC Melgar
0.33

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama
0.43
FBC Melgar
2.00

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par
FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw
93%
Vasco DA Gama or FBC Melgar
80%
Draw or FBC Melgar
27%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
46%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
84%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
55%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
28%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
32%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
6%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
91%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.71 + FBC Melgar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

FBC Melgar attack 0.33 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more
73%
level
20%
FBC Melgar scores more
7%

Vasco DA Gama at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96
Paulo HenriqueVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama · D
8.5

Match Events

3'
Rayan↳ Coutinho
33'
Paulo Henrique
37'
Jair
44'
P. Vegetti↳ Tche Tche
53'
L. Guzman← T. Martinez
62'
P. Vivanco← G. Rodriguez
64'
B. Garre← Coutinho
74'
Adson← Tche Tche
74'
Mateus Carvalho← N. Moreira
74'
Alex Teixeira← Rayan
79'
A. Arias← M. Lazo
79'
N. Cabanillas← M. Llontop
80'
Lucas Freitas
83'
Piero Vivanco
84'
J. Rodriguez← Paulo Henrique
90'
Leonel González

Possession

59%Vasco

Shots

14Vasco

Pass accuracy

53%Vasco

Statistics

VascoFBC
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots15
1Corners8
12Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots15
5On Target3
6Off Target5
3Blocked7
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box8
Passing
59%Possession41%
582Total Passes393
529Accurate Passes316
91%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Vasco DA Gama 3–0 FBC Melgar

Vasco DA Gama beat FBC Melgar 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 27, 2025.

Goals: Rayan (3'), Paulo Henrique (33'), P. Vegetti (44').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.