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FBC Melgar vs Vasco DA Gama — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
K. G. Cabrera Nakamura 90'
F. Castro 80'
G. Rodriguez 39'
P. Vegetti 51', 32'
Coutinho 3'
4/2/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio de la UNSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FBC Melgar52%
×Draw23%
Vasco DA Gama25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.81
Vasco DA Gama
1.17

FBC Melgar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.33
Vasco DA Gama
1.00

allows per match

FBC Melgar
1.33
Vasco DA Gama
2.29

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
75%
FBC Melgar or Vasco DA Gama
77%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
48%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
29%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
84%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
54%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
27%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
69%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
33%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
68%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.33 + Vasco DA Gama defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.00 + FBC Melgar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
52%
level
23%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
25%

FBC Melgar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
P. VegettiVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama · F
8.5

Match Events

3'
Coutinho↳ Lucas Piton
27'
Paulinho Paula
32'
P. Vegetti↳ Coutinho
39'
G. Rodriguez↳ H. Orzan
45+4'
Percy Liza
45+4'
Mauricio Lemos
46'
Rayan← B. Garre
46'
Jair← Paulinho Paula
51'
P. Vegetti
61'
L. Guzman← G. Rodriguez
61'
C. Bordacahar← P. Liza
62'
W. Tandazo← P. Barrios
69'
Tche Tche← Coutinho
71'
Adson← N. Moreira
73'
F. Castro← A. Arias
77'
Matías Lazo
79'
E. Ramos← M. Lazo
80'
F. Castro↳ K. G. Cabrera Nakamura
84'
Lucas Oliveira← P. Vegetti
90+6'
Lucas Oliveira
90'
K. G. Cabrera Nakamura↳ L. Gonzalez

Possession

67%FBC

Shots

20FBC

Pass accuracy

53%FBC

Statistics

FBCVasco
Overview
67%Possession33%
20Total Shots6
16Corners0
8Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots6
7On Target3
8Off Target2
5Blocked1
13Inside Box3
7Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
543Total Passes299
490Accurate Passes238
90%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: FBC Melgar 3–3 Vasco DA Gama

FBC Melgar and Vasco DA Gama drew 3-3 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 2, 2025.

Goals: Coutinho (3'), P. Vegetti (32', 51'), G. Rodriguez (39'), F. Castro (80'), K. G. Cabrera Nakamura (90').

FBC Melgar controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio de la UNSA in Arequipa.