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Vasco DA Gama vs Confiança — Serie B 2026

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Confiança
Confiança
MT 14'
7/3/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 9Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Vasco DA Gama51%
×Draw27%
Confiança22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco DA Gama
1.43
Confiança
0.84

Vasco DA Gama creates 70% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.58
Confiança
0.78

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama
0.91
Confiança
1.28

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par
Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Confiança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw
78%
Vasco DA Gama or Confiança
73%
Draw or Confiança
49%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
25%
Confiança wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
76%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
42%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
17%
Confiança 1+ goals
57%
Confiança 2+ goals
21%
Confiança 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
70%
Confiança (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.58 + Confiança defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Confiança attack 0.78 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more
51%
level
27%
Confiança scores more
22%

Vasco DA Gama at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
MTVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama · M
7.7

Match Events

14'
MT↳ Marquinhos Gabriel
38'
Rafael Santos
39'
Ítalo Melo← Álvaro
46'
Figueiredo← Michel
49'
MT
54'
Gustavo Ramos
63'
Robinho← Gustavo Ramos
63'
Renan← Daniel Penha
72'
Caio Lopes← Gabriel Pec
72'
M. Sarrafiore← Marquinhos Gabriel
72'
Arthur← MT
73'
Bruno Sena← Gilberto Santos
73'
Alex Henrique← Hernane
87'
Miranda← Andrey
90+4'
Zeca
90+3'
Nirley

Possession

41%Vasco

Shots

11Vasco

Pass accuracy

48%Vasco

Statistics

VascoConfiança
Overview
41%Possession59%
11Total Shots16
1Corners4
25Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots16
6On Target3
3Off Target8
2Blocked5
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
332Total Passes478
248Accurate Passes385
75%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
25Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Serie B: Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Confiança

Vasco DA Gama beat Confiança 1-0 in Serie B on July 3, 2021.

Goals: MT (14').

Confiança controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.