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Confiança vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie B 2026

Confiança
Confiança
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
10/3/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 28Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Confiança41%
×Draw29%
Vasco DA Gama30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Confiança
1.23
Vasco DA Gama
1.00

Confiança creates 23% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 43 away

creates per match

Confiança
1.06
Vasco DA Gama
0.84

allows per match

Confiança
1.16
Vasco DA Gama
1.40

finishing

Confiança+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Confiança ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Confiança or draw
70%
Confiança or Vasco DA Gama
71%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
59%

Winning margin

Confiança wins by 2+
18%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Confiança 1+ goals
71%
Confiança 2+ goals
35%
Confiança 3+ goals
13%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
63%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
26%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Confiança (draw refunded)
58%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Confiança at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Confiança attack 1.06 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.84 + Confiança defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Confiança scores more
41%
level
29%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
30%

Confiança at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Confiança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Confiança 1–2 Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama beat Confiança 2-1 in Serie B on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.