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Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro — Serie A 2026

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
5/5/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 4São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Vasco DA Gama47%
×Draw26%
America Mineiro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco DA Gama
1.47
America Mineiro
1.05

Vasco DA Gama creates 40% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 76 away

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.34
America Mineiro
0.87

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.23
America Mineiro
1.59

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw
73%
Vasco DA Gama or America Mineiro
74%
Draw or America Mineiro
53%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
23%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
77%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
43%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
18%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
65%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
28%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
63%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.34 + America Mineiro defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more
47%
level
26%
America Mineiro scores more
27%

Vasco DA Gama at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 4–1 America Mineiro

Vasco DA Gama beat America Mineiro 4-1 in Serie A on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.