America Mineiro 0–1 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

9/25/2023

Serie A · Round 15Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

America Mineiro45%

×Draw27%

Vasco DA Gama28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.01

America Mineiro

1.35

Vasco DA Gama

1.01

America Mineiro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 123 away

1.14

creates per match

0.91

1.11

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.14

Vasco DA Gama

0.91

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.11

Vasco DA Gama

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

72%

America Mineiro or Vasco DA Gama

73%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

55%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

21%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

74%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

39%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

15%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

64%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

27%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

61%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.14 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.91 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

America Mineiro scores more

45%

level

27%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

28%

America Mineiro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff