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Vasco da Gama U20 vs São Raimundo RR U20 — League #617 2026

Vasco da Gama U20
Vasco da Gama U20
FT
4 – 2
São Raimundo RR U20
São Raimundo RR U20
M. Paulo 89'
G. Ferreira 88'
Arthur Sales 35'
R. Riberio 6'
Tayson 76', 58'
5/9/2021League #617League #617 · 2nd RoundEstádio Nivaldo Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vasco da Gama U2082%
×Draw11%
São Raimundo RR U207%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco da Gama U20
3.50
São Raimundo RR U20
1.00

Vasco da Gama U20 creates 250% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vasco da Gama U20
3.25
São Raimundo RR U20
0.75

allows per match

Vasco da Gama U20
1.25
São Raimundo RR U20
3.75

finishing

Vasco da Gama U20+0.00on par
São Raimundo RR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 81Under: 1981%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco da Gama U20 ↓

São Raimundo RR U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Vasco da Gama U20 or draw
93%
Vasco da Gama U20 or São Raimundo RR U20
89%
Draw or São Raimundo RR U20
18%

Winning margin

Vasco da Gama U20 wins by 2+
65%
São Raimundo RR U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vasco da Gama U20 1+ goals
97%
Vasco da Gama U20 2+ goals
85%
Vasco da Gama U20 3+ goals
66%
São Raimundo RR U20 1+ goals
63%
São Raimundo RR U20 2+ goals
26%
São Raimundo RR U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vasco da Gama U20 (draw refunded)
92%
São Raimundo RR U20 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco da Gama U20 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

São Raimundo RR U20 away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco da Gama U20 attack 3.25 + São Raimundo RR U20 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.50

São Raimundo RR U20 attack 0.75 + Vasco da Gama U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Vasco da Gama U20 scores more
82%
level
11%
São Raimundo RR U20 scores more
7%

Vasco da Gama U20 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Vasco da Gama U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
R. Riberio
35'
Arthur Sales
58'
Tayson
76'
Tayson
88'
G. Ferreira
89'
M. Paulo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #617: Vasco da Gama U20 4–2 São Raimundo RR U20

Vasco da Gama U20 beat São Raimundo RR U20 4-2 in League #617 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: R. Riberio (6'), Arthur Sales (35'), Tayson (58', 76'), G. Ferreira (88'), M. Paulo (89').

The match was played at Estádio Nivaldo Pereira in Nova Iguaçu, Rio de Janeiro.