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São Raimundo RR U20 vs Vasco da Gama U20 — League #617 2026

São Raimundo RR U20
São Raimundo RR U20
FT
1 – 3
Vasco da Gama U20
Vasco da Gama U20
Rafinha 81' (pen)
A. Santos 45+2'
R. Riberio 24'
Caio 5'
5/5/2021League #617League #617 · 2nd RoundEstádio Flamarion Vasconcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

São Raimundo RR U2022%
×Draw24%
Vasco da Gama U2055%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Raimundo RR U20
1.00
Vasco da Gama U20
1.75

Vasco da Gama U20 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

São Raimundo RR U20
1.00
Vasco da Gama U20
1.50

allows per match

São Raimundo RR U20
2.00
Vasco da Gama U20
1.00

finishing

São Raimundo RR U20+0.00on par
Vasco da Gama U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Raimundo RR U20 ↓

Vasco da Gama U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

São Raimundo RR U20 or draw
45%
São Raimundo RR U20 or Vasco da Gama U20
76%
Draw or Vasco da Gama U20
78%

Winning margin

São Raimundo RR U20 wins by 2+
8%
Vasco da Gama U20 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

São Raimundo RR U20 1+ goals
63%
São Raimundo RR U20 2+ goals
26%
São Raimundo RR U20 3+ goals
8%
Vasco da Gama U20 1+ goals
83%
Vasco da Gama U20 2+ goals
52%
Vasco da Gama U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

São Raimundo RR U20 (draw refunded)
28%
Vasco da Gama U20 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Raimundo RR U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Vasco da Gama U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Raimundo RR U20 attack 1.00 + Vasco da Gama U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vasco da Gama U20 attack 1.50 + São Raimundo RR U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

São Raimundo RR U20 scores more
22%
level
24%
Vasco da Gama U20 scores more
55%

Vasco da Gama U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vasco da Gama U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Caio
24'
R. Riberio
45+2'
A. Santos
81'
RafinhaPenalty
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Raimundo RR U20 vs Vasco da Gama U20

Vasco da Gama U20 beat São Raimundo RR U20 3-1 in League #617 on May 5, 2021.

Goals: Caio (5'), R. Riberio (24'), A. Santos (45+2'), Rafinha (81' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Flamarion Vasconcelos in Boa Vista, Roraima.