Vasby United 3–1 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

Vasby United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Malmo FF

M. Buya Turay 28', 5'

O. Eddahri 15'

J. Berget 59' (pen)

8/19/2017

Allsvenskan · Round 20Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vasby United28%

×Draw25%

Malmo FF47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasby UnitedExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.57

Vasby United

1.15

Malmo FF

1.57

Malmo FF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 127 away

1.13

creates per match

1.63

1.52

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Vasby United

1.13

Malmo FF

1.63

allows per match

Vasby United

1.52

Malmo FF

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw

53%

Vasby United or Malmo FF

75%

Draw or Malmo FF

72%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+

11%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals

68%

Vasby United 2+ goals

32%

Vasby United 3+ goals

11%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

79%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

46%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)

37%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.13 + Malmo FF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Malmo FF attack 1.63 + Vasby United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vasby United scores more

28%

level

25%

Malmo FF scores more

47%

Malmo FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Buya Turay

Vasby United

8.6

Match Events

5'

M. Buya Turay↳ D. Björnkvist

6'

Mohamed Buya

8'

Abdul Razak

15'

O. Eddahri↳ A. Haghighi

28'

B. Safari← L. Nielsen

28'

M. Buya Turay↳ A. Fox

38'

Andrew Fox

45'

Omar Eddahri

59'

J. BergetPenalty

63'

F. Ali← A. Fox

66'

K. Sarfo← A. Vindheim

74'

Anders Christiansen

78'

Maranhão← R. Åstedt

78'

M. Svanberg← P. Cibicki

90'

C. Omeje← M. Buya Turay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VasbyMalmo

Overview

29%Possession71%

11Total Shots21

1Corners10

14Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots21

5On Target6

5Off Target9

1Blocked6

6Inside Box13

5Outside Box8

Passing

29%Possession71%

277Total Passes643

172Accurate Passes542

62%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2